Article available here.
Postscript: On the next page, Sagan writes:
[T]he military, like most organizations, tends to plan incrementally, leading it to focus on immediate plans for war and not the subsequent problems of managing the postwar world. Moreover, since managing the postwar world is the diplomats' job, not part of military officers' operational responsibility, the professional military is likely to be short-sighted, not examining the long-term political and diplomatic consequences of preventive war.
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